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“hardware wallet” · 2 mentions
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15:25
01:08:49
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10:20
bought Bitcoin early 2011 when I did and
10:22
they did it faster and that super pissed
10:24
me off because I saw a lot of problems
10:26
with project and I was wrong
10:29
it turns out that my model for
10:33
evaluating the value of a cryptocurrency
10:36
was based on its security it's a number
10:41
of
wallet
s installed the number of
10:43
reddit users had had the the lack of
10:46
people getting hacked using it the
10:49
smaller attack surface so that it would
10:51
always be attacked less you know all of
10:54
these things I thought
10:55
that is what made things valuable but it
11:00
turned out that in 2017 what made things
11:02
valuable was the new money that hadn't
11:06
already blown their wads buying Bitcoin
11:09
so in the beginning no ma'am I told you
11:12
we're going deep this is how deep were
11:14
gone all right so I'm gonna just I'm
11:15
just going to give you some bread come
11:16
so we can track back how I got how we
11:18
got here
11:19
so I said paradoxes don't usually
11:21
actually exist they get broken by
11:24
analyzing time and so something like a
11:27
statement such as if I stop these noobs
11:30
from buying [ __ ] coins my Bitcoin bag
11:32
would go up is true short and mid term
11:34
false long-term it it's both true and
11:40
false it depends on what frame of time
11:43
you're looking at it right so in 2017
11:46
Vica theorem went up higher and faster
11:49
and it was because everyone was buying
11:52
it because there were new purchasers
11:54
that hadn't been exposed to crypto
11:56
before they were kumbaya soy developers
12:00
Silicon Valley guys that weren't
12:02
libertarian that weren't
12:05
anarcho-capitalist that weren't
12:07
anti-government a completely different
12:09
mindset of people who probably as is as
12:12
well-funded or more on a per capita
12:15
basis than the hardcore silver bugs and
12:18
gold bugs they came in and it was the
12:24
reason and they saw how big the Bitcoin
12:26
pump was it was even easier to sell them
12:27
on that so that the price difference
12:30
between Bitcoin and aetherium had
12:31
nothing at all to do with the technology
12:34
whatsoever it had everything to do with
12:37
how many people hadn't bought in yet
12:39
that left a giant pool of speculative
12:42
capital to dump in quickly right
12:45
combined with the FOMO of okay
12:47
institutions are finally gonna get in
12:49
and that just pushed everything up so if
12:52
you bought aetherium and middle of 2017
12:56
you did better than buying Bitcoin in
12:58
the middle of 2017 now if you held your
13:02
aetherium past January of 2018
13:06
you did worse right
13:08
so it was both a better and worse
13:10
investment depending on when you got in
13:12
and when you got out so this concept
13:16
that Bitcoin maximalist have that if
13:18
they could just kill all the [ __ ] coins
13:20
Bitcoin would be doing so much better is
13:23
a hundred percent false a hundred
13:24
percent the only immediate by is done to
13:27
get the general public interested in
13:29
crypto we're see a Missha coin I see oh
13:31
garbage media buys they're the only
13:34
people that have the margin to overcome
13:37
the the tragedy of the Commons so the
13:40
only people that can make enough profit
13:42
on a new user to afford buying an ad to
13:44
bring on a new user Bitcoin is [ __ ] we
13:48
can't afford to bring on new users
13:49
because no one has enough of a stack to
13:52
gain enough of a percentage right so
13:54
like so let's take my stack right I
13:56
bring out any user how many dollars did
13:58
I make not many right because I got to
14:01
pull up the weight of all these other
14:03
dead people who aren't buying ads and
14:04
it's just it's an undoable which is why
14:07
you don't see Bitcoin ads on television
14:09
right so if you want to get people into
14:11
crypto they need to come in for the [ __ ]
14:14
coins get rekt see the gains on paper
14:17
get destroyed and then be like oh [ __ ] I
14:20
should have bought Bitcoin that's still
14:22
got some value right so in the short and
14:25
midterm maybe even the long term
14:28
depending which parts you're looking at
14:29
[ __ ] coins are the only reason the
14:32
Bitcoin pumped the way that it did in
14:33
2017 cuz it sure as [ __ ] was not
14:35
adoption sure as [ __ ] was not
wallet
s
14:37
installed it was it was none of the
14:39
fundamentals that you would want to see
14:41
the project doing well on right now
14:45
let's look at let's look at the progress
14:48
the Bitcoin network has made since I got
14:50
in in 2011 until now we got HD
wallet
s
14:53
we got multi-sig we've got cig wit which
14:56
allows us to screw with lightning which
14:58
isn't here yet right there's 1.5 million
15:01
dollars of capital and lightning maybe 2
15:04
million after the price bump today
15:05
that's not a lot right it's still beta
15:08
software what else can you do with it
15:12
the whole Bitcoin network really is just
15:14
like send/receive or mine no one even
15:16
uses all those other things
15:17
nobodies not many if you at home the
15:20
user go
15:21
your Bitcoin
wallet
you are not using
15:23
multi-sig maybe if you're using a
15:25
hardware
wallet
maybe if you're using
15:26
green address and set up some special
15:29
rules but for the most part these things
15:31
I'm calling features and being very
15:32
generous about the concept that Bitcoin
15:35
just you can send it receive it or mine
15:37
it that's about all we got right now
15:40
what else did we get we got a narrowly
15:42
avoided inflation bug that would have
15:45
been terrible somebody could have
15:47
printed as many coins as they wanted and
15:49
broke the 21 million coin limit right
15:50
and we avoided it by this much because
15:53
the Bitcoin cash developer found it
15:55
that ain't great that's not great so the
16:01
moral of my story here is you can be
16:03
technically right and price wrong you
16:06
can be price right and price wrong at
16:08
the same time which is why every single
16:10
price prediction you give or get from
16:12
anyone else has to have a time component
16:14
or you will be right and destroy your
16:16
followers right I told a lot of people
16:18
not to buy aetherium back when those
16:20
very cheap and I was wrong right and I
16:25
told you why I was wrong
16:26
yeah and I every bad thing I've ever
16:30
said about aetherium I leave those
16:31
essays up because they're still accurate
16:33
you can route around those problems if
16:35
you're smart but I'm not going to
16:36
pretend they're not there so maximalism
16:39
is the ignorance of the difference in
16:42
benefits and drawbacks to every system
16:45
every system has them and to pretend
16:47
that one is ultimately better is [ __ ]
16:48
very stupid yeah ok I wouldn't go that
16:54
far I think again like because it's a
16:58
problem right like like I don't want to
17:00
like I don't care if it's a path we'll
17:02
take right if the reason people getting
17:04
into Bitcoin is because they go to
17:06
speculate on on on on some small coins
17:08
and then they get they make some money
17:10
they get wrecked and they come Bitcoin
17:11
that's fine with me but I won't be the
17:13
guy telling them to go get wrecked on
17:15
the outcomes right like somebody's gonna
17:17
put their face on it and pump it right
17:19
and I'm that guy I'd rather be the guy
17:22
that said see I told you to buy Bitcoin
17:23
and and and what I do think is like I
17:26
don't want to help people keep their
17:28
private keys and protector there
17:31
shouldn't in this sort of internet
17:32
wilderness
17:34
and that's one of the things that I like
17:36
to do but but yeah I say that it's
17:40
purple see you should probably you have
17:42
to upgrade your advice and break it into
17:44
two parts technically these coins are
17:47
[ __ ]
17:48
they have no reason to exist they have
17:50
no adoption they have bad teams they
17:52
have bad security they have no audits
17:54
everything that is bad everything that
17:57
could possibly be bad it's the wrong
17:59
thing to do done by the wrong people at
18:01
the wrong time in the wrong way at the
18:04
wrong price point with too much solution
18:05
like everything possible is wrong
18:07
however people are [ __ ] stupid and
18:11
they will buy the [ __ ] into the sky and
18:14
you will watch the price pump out do any
18:18
gains you've ever seen in your entire
18:19
life and then the unlucky bastards at
18:22
the end will lose it all but the people
18:25
that we're in at the beginning will get
18:26
insanely [ __ ] ly rich alright then
18:29
if you give them both of those
18:30
components and you say listen
18:32
technically it's horrible but if you
18:35
short a [ __ ] coin you will go broke
18:36
right because someone that locked up the
18:38
supply will just buy from himself and
18:40
pump that price up until you're [ __ ]
18:41
liquidated like the world is not fair
18:44
you can't short [ __ ] coins like it's
18:48
dangerous right and even if you shorted
18:50
even if you shorted aetherium from $1400
18:53
down to zero you made $1400 on your
18:56
$1400 but what if you just waited for it
18:59
to [ __ ] bottom out at zero and bought
19:01
$1 worth you would have you know went
19:04
back up to 1400 you made the same $1400
19:07
on one dollar which means you could have
19:10
made 1400 times more money by putting in
19:13
your whole $1,400 by buying the bottom
19:15
instead of selling the top right so
19:18
every every long and short equals out
19:22
not including fees so if a long made
19:26
$1000 the short lost $1,000 however in
19:30
order for the short to lose the thousand
19:32
he had to put in a thousand like it you
19:35
you have to pay a lot more to make money
19:39
shorting then you have to make make
19:42
money longing so like to make the same
19:46
money you'd have to be right twice it
19:48
would
19:48
have to drop all the way down to where
19:49
you guessed and then go back all the way
19:51
up to the top again and then you'd both
19:53
make the same money percentage-wise yes
19:56
it was fascinating mm-hmm
19:59
well most people in the world are not
20:02
they're nowhere near the level of of
20:05
Education that we're talking about as
20:07
far as financial sort of literacy like
20:09
they're most people are financially
20:11
literate practically speaking they they
20:14
go through school at the school shed
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