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Surprise stream where I answer questions from the audience.
Nov 25, 2019
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06:44
stop revenge trading it just makes you
06:47
worse not better
06:48
the market is less predictable than it's
06:50
ever been unless you have a new source
06:54
inside of China that's telling you
06:55
what's going on beforehand the technical
06:58
analysis isn't what it used to be
07:00
we went up 42 percent in a day on China
07:03
News and then we didn't go up anymore
07:06
and we retraced the full 42 % pump
07:08
candle and dipped far beneath it that is
07:12
not normal right
07:14
that is not normal Bitcoin and you're
07:17
you're probably gonna get a lot more not
07:19
normal things and you're going to get
07:22
chopped up and the people that are going
07:24
to get it Britch are the exchanges so
07:27
stop getting chopped up stop making the
07:29
exchanges rich stop thinking that you
07:32
can predict an unpredictable thing that
07:35
is more unpredictable than it's ever
07:37
been
07:37
you're not able to do that it's not a
07:40
good bet so if you believe it's proven
07:44
that the ideal way to handle money
07:47
management is to vary your bet size
07:51
based on your confidence and this
07:53
assumes that your estimate of your
07:55
confidence is is realistic and most
07:58
people probably overestimate how
07:59
confident they should be in things it's
08:03
called the Kelly criterion if you want
08:05
to look it up on Wikipedia
08:07
kely so if you if you are uncertain
08:14
about what the price is really gonna do
08:18
then you shouldn't be betting because
08:21
you should only take a bet if your
08:23
certainty leads you to an outcome that
08:25
you like the betting the betting size
08:28
modification keeps you in the game
08:31
through bad beats right because everyone
08:34
gets bad beats you play it statistically
08:37
correct and every once in a while
08:39
something that's improbable just cameras
08:41
you write and if you just happen to be
08:43
all in on your stack on a one of those
08:45
times you're out of the game for good so
08:48
if you now have a system where it's more
08:50
unpredictable than it's ever been
08:52
then you don't have any certainty you're
08:55
gonna be profitable at all you shouldn't
08:56
play at all but even if you were certain
08:59
that you you had some type of edge your
09:01
bet would be so much smaller due to the
09:03
extra uncertainty right and really what
09:06
are you achieving in the world like
09:07
you're you're destroying your health in
09:10
your relationships and doing something
09:12
that has a high suicide rate probably to
09:15
just lose a lot of money and wish you
09:17
never did it and then if actually you
09:19
win and you beat the other guy and you
09:22
take his money that poor son of a
09:24
was in your position and now it's just
09:26
even worse for him right
09:28
so don't I don't think trading is
09:30
honorable or good you know if your
09:33
counterparty with some giant faceless
09:35
mega Corp and they were the one that was
09:38
taking the beating okay maybe you could
09:39
feel a little bit better about that but
09:41
you're not gonna be winning anyway so it
09:43
doesn't really matter you know you know
09:45
you don't have to care as much about the
09:46
horror on the other side because you're
09:48
gonna have your own personal hoarder to
09:49
deal with if you from we went up a
09:54
hundred acts from 200 to 20,000 no dips
09:58
over forty percent all of them resolved
10:00
in less than 31 days to find a bottom or
10:02
34 and now we've dipped you know we had
10:07
a 14k top and we went under 7k and went
10:11
down to 6500 so what's the math on that
10:14
the math on that would be similar to
10:16
going up to 10k and dropping down to 32
10:19
50 which is drop of like 67 50 is that I
10:25
don't know
10:26
I'll just let's do the math here hmm
10:31
what percent is 60 to 50 of 20,000
10:37
roasted over 14k right we'll do the
10:40
local top
10:42
you to do 44.7% that's a pretty big drop
10:51
but you see that's not the actual job
10:53
the actual drop is 14k it's easier to
10:57
just measure this stuff on training view
10:58
right - 60 - fifty seventy seven fifty
11:02
is your actual drop over 14k ooh a fifty
11:07
five percent drop
11:08
ouch right so we're doing things that we
11:13
never ever ever ever did in 2016-2017
11:17
we're doing those things now right so if
11:21
you're looking for fractals and you're
11:22
looking for patterns you're looking at
11:23
the old chart and it's not working it's
11:27
not working right because now we're on
11:29
day like a 140 of dip on a 55 percent
11:32
dip you know historically that kind of
11:36
means like the parabola has been
11:38
violated and you're gonna drop eighty
11:40
percent that's what that usually means
11:44
but I think the game is so weird and
11:46
different now that what it used to mean
11:47
probably isn't going to mean anymore so
11:51
what's the good news the good news is
11:53
hey I just happened to have built this
11:55
really cool product that pays you for
11:57
holding so that you don't have to get
11:59
wrecked on margin so if you want to if
12:02
you want to make money just through
12:04
holding it's like getting free mining
12:05
hardware
and electricity
12:06
except you just lock your coins up and
12:08
they're free so you can get them for
12:10
free or for a Bitcoin holder and the
12:12
snapshots in six days and five hours
12:16
lucky you right lucky you now what's the
12:19
USD price gonna do I have absolutely no
12:21
idea I know what it is designed to do I
12:24
know what the design parameters are it
12:27
was designed to outperform any other
12:29
kirpa two currencies ever existed
12:30
it's designed to outperform Bitcoin it's
12:32
designed to outperform a theorem which
12:33
it's built on well how is that possible
12:36
well one what is Bitcoin do the
12:39
transfers value you you increase the
12:41
number here it decreases a number over
12:43
there right you can transfer value
12:47
usually you're decreasing your number
12:49
increasing somebody else's
12:52
and it's got censorship resistance and
12:54
it tends to go up in price and it's got
12:57
one pump a mental built-in that the
13:00
inflation rate drops in half every four
13:02
years single pump a mental right well we
13:07
transfer value censorship resistant with
13:12
a better mining ecosystem and we have
13:15
more complemental x' and the coins are
13:18
free like the Clint used to be and it
13:21
can do time deposits with paying
13:23
interest which biklen can't and it
13:25
doesn't pay miners inflation that they
13:27
used to sell the price down in the
13:28
market so every single ten minutes
13:31
there's another 12.5 bitcoins that come
13:33
out that gets sold on the market for
13:36
electricity why because their bills are
13:39
that high because difficulties of
13:41
all-time highs but price is four times
13:43
lower than all-time high there are three
13:45
times lower than all-time high
13:47
so the guess what even if they wanted to
13:50
hold they can't have bills to pay period
13:53
they have to sell the coins right
13:54
because of the facilities that they have
13:56
to pay for they've electric both have to
13:57
pay even if they turn the electricity
13:59
off they're still paying a rent and
14:01
they're still playing for someone to
14:03
guard the machines so hex does
14:07
everything Bitcoin does better except
14:09
for liquidity because it's brand new and
14:12
and retailer acceptance and ATMs so if
14:17
you want to use an ATM bitcoins the best
14:19
for crypto if you want more liquidity if
14:22
you need to place a hundred million
14:23
dollar order and you're worried about
14:24
the market sliding against you bitcoins
14:27
way better if you want to use your BTC
14:30
at one of the eight hundred retailers it
14:32
accepts it it's better but if you want
14:36
to make bad gains you can't beat the
14:38
return on something you get for free
14:40
can't yeah so I look back at your so my
14:46
point is and I've been saying this for a
14:48
while don't get wrecked before the hex
14:50
launch it's like it would be a terrible
14:54
time to get wrecked because to me this
14:56
feels like when Bitcoin was a dollar
14:58
that's the feeling the vibe hey look
15:00
here's this thing I can get for free
15:01
look it's got all those Cloney features
15:03
look it's got this cool
15:04
munity right we got 18,000 700 emails
15:07
now after the removes and that means
15:12
like you know hard bounces and like when
15:14
you when people sign up their mailboxes
15:17
get full and all types of weird stuff
15:18
happens so then you have to like stop
15:19
mailing them mm-hmm or else the servers
15:22
stop delivering you to their inbox to
15:25
anyone's inbox they consider your spam
15:26
if you don't do your moves properly if
15:31
you take the advice to stop training you
15:34
may never know what a good solid service
15:38
that you've been done now look I've got
15:40
a referral link if you want to trade go
15:42
ahead and use it
15:42
it's Richard Hart dot win but I can tell
15:45
you you shouldn't
15:46
you really shouldn't you know it it can
15:50
destroy your life and while it's
15:53
destroying your life it also takes on
15:54
your money it's it's one of the few
15:57
things in the world where the harder you
15:58
work the more you lose well most things
16:01
don't work like that right like if you
16:03
work a normal job the harder you work
16:04
you know the more money make right you
16:06
put in more hours they pay you more mmm
16:09
so let's go chat hmm i refresh the
16:14
window and chat like disappeared so
16:16
let's see if it comes back if I pop it
16:18
out yeah it does all right I can tell
16:22
you guys I can only talk to you for
16:23
about 40 more minutes I'm gonna scroll
16:29
to the top so I don't miss anybody well
16:31
it looks like I'm gonna mess with people
16:33
because my top isn't the real top
16:34
unfortunately the first message I see
16:37
here is what was your post about China
16:41
exchanges about mmm nothing they just
16:44
shut down
16:45
127 Chinese exchanges apparently but
16:48
none of them are ones that you've ever
16:50
heard of westerner or foreigner so maybe
16:54
it doesn't matter that much but it's
16:56
interesting timing that the price dumped
16:57
so hard in relationship to that news so
17:00
maybe it did matter oh somebody says I
17:05
watched that video and I said to myself
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